Asia-Pacific to propel global air traffic demand in coming decades
Global air traffic is projected to more than double over the next two
decades, driven by strong demand from the Asia-Pacific region, Airbus
announced. The European aircraft manufacturer expects the global fleet to
increase from 24,240 planes in early 2024 to 48,230 by 2043.
Airbus forecasts an annual air traffic growth of nearly 8% until 2027,
recovering quickly from the pandemic-related downturn. Growth will then
stabilize at a rate of 3.6% per year until 2043, according to Airbus's 2024
Global Market Forecast.
"Over the last four years, air transportation has proven its resilience
through the deepest and longest crisis in its history. Traffic and airline
operations are broadly back to pre-Covid levels or higher with few
exceptions," Airbus stated.
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The expected growth is attributed to a rise in global GDP, which is
anticipated to increase by over 2.6% from 2023 to 2043. The surge in demand
will be driven by factors such as expanding populations, a growing middle
class, increasing numbers of first-time fliers, enhanced trade, improved
infrastructure, and new affordable flights offered by airlines.
Asia-Pacific, particularly China and India, will see the most significant
growth, with nearly 45% of new aircraft deliveries aimed at replacing older,
less fuel-efficient planes. The region's expanding middle class and increasing
urbanization are major contributors to this demand.
Bob Lange, Airbus's Head of Market Analysis and Forecasts, noted, "We
see particularly strong growth in Asia and the Middle East, led by India and
China. Domestic China [traffic] will overtake the US."
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The new fleet will include over 100-seat passenger aircraft and freighters
with more than 10 tonnes of payload, comprising 33,510 single-aisle and 8,920
wide-body planes. The Asia-Pacific region will demand 19,510 new aircraft,
while Europe and the CIS, North America, Latin America, the Middle East, and
Africa will also see significant new deliveries.
In the Middle East, airlines, particularly in Saudi Arabia, are expected to
be major buyers, along with airlines in North America and Europe, which aim to
replace older planes with more sustainable models.
Airbus emphasized the importance of fuel efficiency, noting that nearly 30%
of the current global fleet consists of the latest generation aircraft, with
the rest being previous generations. The replacement of older planes could
yield about 25% carbon dioxide savings across the entire Airbus fleet.
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Airbus's decarbonization strategy includes using Sustainable Aviation Fuels
(SAFs), new operational efficiencies, and future technologies like hydrogen and
carbon-capture techniques. Currently, all Airbus aircraft can use up to 50% SAF
blends without modifications, with a goal of 100% capability by the end of the
decade. The company also plans to introduce a hydrogen-powered aircraft by
2035.
The emphasis on sustainable practices aims to help the aviation industry achieve its net-zero carbon emissions goal by 2050, despite the current challenges of limited SAF production and higher costs compared to conventional fuels.
Source: The National