Climate change intensifying turbulence threats for South Asian aviation
In June, severe turbulence on a Singapore Airlines flight resulted in the
death of a passenger with a heart condition and injuries to several others,
spotlighting a growing concern: the link between climate change and increased
air turbulence.
On May 1, 2022, similar turbulence struck a SpiceJet flight from Mumbai to
Kolkata, injuring many passengers. Months later, one of the injured passengers
succumbed to their injuries. Hemal Doshi, a passenger on the SpiceJet flight,
recalled, “A sudden jolt threw everyone into a panic. I held onto an elderly
woman next to me to keep her from falling.”
A few weeks later, an Air Blue flight from Karachi to Peshawar encountered
unexpected turbulence, terrifying passengers. Nasreen Pasha, a passenger,
described the experience: “Everything was fine until the flight suddenly became
rough and bumpy, shaking incessantly.”
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The Science and Effects of Air Turbulence
Islamabad-based scientist Mohammad Umer Alvi attributes increased turbulence
to environmental degradation. “Rising temperatures and deforestation make the
atmosphere around big cities more unstable, leading to convective currents that
cause unpredictable air turbulence, especially around major airports like
Karachi and Lahore,” Alvi explains.
A global study published in 2019 by the University of Reading’s Department
of Meteorology highlighted that climate change exacerbates clear-air turbulence
(CAT). This severe form of turbulence occurs in cloudless regions and is
difficult to predict. The study noted that warmer air caused by carbon dioxide
emissions increases wind shear in jet streams, strengthening CAT globally. For
instance, severe turbulence over the North Atlantic increased by 55% from 1979
to 2020.
Sarfaraz Khan, a senior official at the Pakistan Meteorological Department,
explains that turbulence forecasts rely on upper atmosphere wind data from
radiosondes. “Jet streams with very strong winds above 30,000 feet cause turbulence.
If warming intensifies, CAT events will rise significantly,” he says.
Jayanarayana Kuttippurath, a climate expert from IIT Kharagpur, adds,
“Global warming changes vertical temperature and wind profiles, leading to
sharp upward and downward atmospheric motions and increased CAT.”
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The Link with Climate Change
Raghu Murtugudde, a climate studies professor at IIT Bombay, points out that
global warming alters temperature and wind profiles as the Earth tries to expel
excess trapped energy, increasing CAT. Kuttippurath emphasizes that every 1°C
rise in global temperature could enhance moderate CAT events by about 9% in
spring and winter and by 14% in autumn and summer in the northern hemisphere.
He stresses the need for better early warning systems and equipping aircraft
with detection instruments to handle turbulence more effectively.
Impact on South Asia's Air Transport Industry
As South Asia's air travel industry grows, with forecasts predicting
significant increases in passenger journeys and economic contributions in both
Pakistan and India, the aviation sector faces new challenges. Increased
turbulence and severe weather highlight the need for proactive measures to
mitigate climate change’s impact on air travel.
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Green Aviation Solutions
The aviation industry, long criticized for its carbon footprint, faces
additional scrutiny for its contrails, which, according to a study by Bernd
Kärcher from the German Aerospace Center, have a significant warming effect.
These contrail-formed clouds trap heat, exacerbating global warming.
Efforts to reduce aviation’s environmental impact include developing
sustainable aviation fuels and green
Source: Dawn